Russia’s ocean freight market is set for a major reset

Authorities are preparing restrictions for global container lines calling Russian ports — effectively an attempt to bring maritime logistics under domestic control. Only companies with more than 50% Russian ownership will be allowed to operate on these routes. They must prioritize sanctioned cargo, accept Russian jurisdiction, insure risks within Russia, and operate exclusively their own fleet.

In addition, a ban is being introduced on cooperation with “unfriendly” operators — which effectively includes Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd AG, OOCL, ONE, HMM and others. The only notable exception is MSC.

The goal of the initiative is to establish full corporate, asset, and legal control over maritime transport. However, market participants warn of significant consequences: terminal utilization could drop by 40–60%, port calls may decrease, and part of the cargo flow could shift to foreign hubs. This would likely increase costs for businesses and reduce supply chain flexibility.

The most controversial aspects are the fleet ownership requirement and the ban on partnerships with other carriers, which limit market access and complicate multimodal logistics. The prioritization of sanctioned cargo also creates risks of disruptions in foreign ports.

The key question is whether the market can compensate for the withdrawal of global carriers. So far, industry consensus suggests that, given current capacities, this will be крайне difficult. As a result, the initiative strengthens control — but at the cost of higher logistics expenses and a growing risk of partial isolation from global supply chains.